The first round of the presidential elections held yesterday has had the narrowest difference in the votes between the two candidates in the last five presidential elections i.e. Stevo Pendarovski won only 4.606 votes more than Gordana Siljanovska – Davkova.
In consequence, the chances for successful prediction on the outcome of the second round are very slim, if we try to do it by making comparison with previous presidential elections.
In the last three cycles of presidential elections, the candidate with most votes in the first round has won the elections in the second round. At the elections in 2014, Gjorge Ivanov has won 123.278 votes more than his rival (and current candidate for the head of the state), Stevo Pendarovski, and then in the second round he maintained his enormous advantage and won with a difference of 136.833 votes.
A similar situation happened in 2009 when with approximately same margins Ivanov won over his opponent Ljubomir Frchkoski and won got first presidential mandate.
At the elections in 2004, there was a significant advantage of the final winner both in the first and the second round, when Branko Crvenkovski was ahead of his opponent Sashko Kedev with 76.215 votes in the first round and 221.138 votes in the second, which is the largest disparity that has happened in the election cycles we analyzed.
But it wasn’t so at the presidential elections in 1999, when the biggest surprise occurred. Apparently, SDSM’s candidate Tito Petkovski was leading in the first round with 346.606 votes against Boris Trajkovski with 219.098, i.e. he had the lead of 124.508 ballots. But the things have changed completely during the second round, when Trajkovski won with 591.972 votes i.e. 77.373 votes more than his opponent.