With the current vaccination rates, it will take 6 to 7 years to reach global immunity


The countries which started the COVID-19 vaccination of the population, can be irst can reach a collective immunity from 2 to 5 months from now as they will inoculate from 75 to 85% of the population. But, according to the data provided by Bloomberg, with the inoculation of 4.7 million doses by average daily, it will take 6 to 7 years for the world population to be inoculated. In order to reach this percentage, most of the European countries will take between 2 to 5 years. .

Recently, the UN’s Secretary-General António Guterres, announced that only 10 countries in the world have administrated 75% of the available production of vaccines against COVID-19 and more than 130 countries haven’t even reached the level of inocculatiot with the first doses. According to him, it is not fair that only a small number of countries are controlling most of the vaccine stored in the world.

A similar statement was given by the World Health Organization’s Director-General, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus.

System of connected vessels

According to PhD, MD. Dragan Danilovski, in the current situation, the rich countries have abused the advantage of being rich.

“Finding themselves in a special type of psychosis, a condition of insistence to get the vaccines at any cost for their own population, the rich nations have used their advantage of being rich,” said Danilovski.

According to him, no one cant just complain about objecting to anyone’s right to provide for themselves.

“On the other hand, the vaccine producers are guided by their only true motive – the profit. This is the reason why all initially accepted principles that the COVAX Facility was based upon fell apart, for fair and righteous availability of vaccines for the poorer countries. They were left to their own devices,” said Danilovski.

But, it can happen very easily that these decisions can have negative consequences upon the countries that are in an advanced stage of inoculation.

“Why? Because they will understand that all of us on this planet are parts of a closed system of connected vessels. It is not necessary to have a special study to understand what that means in times of pandemic,” stressed the professor.

Does the state has a capacity to implement a massive vaccination?

Over 75% of the population in the Republic of North Macedonia, according to the last census is around 1.5 million people. With the current capacity of 2.500 inoculations daily, it will take a little less than 2 years to administrate only one dose.

But professor Danilovski considers that the total number of the population is little over 1.6 million and so far, around 700.000 persons have had contact with the virus that will not need to be inoculated in this phase since they are protected by cell immunity. If the younger people are taken from these numbers who will not be inoculated against COVID-19, he assumes that in order to the country to reach a certain level of immunity, what remains is the inoculation of at least 387.500 persons.

“With the current daily dynamic of 2.500 inoculations, they would be inoculated in 155 days (5 months),” said Danilovski who also said that this is a calculation for the administration of the first dose.

“Of course, this period will be proportionally longer, taking into account that each citizen will have to be administered a second dose. Otherwise, around 290.000 people are at the age of above 65,” said Prof. Danilovski.

An indicator of the country’s capacity in times of health crisis can be the number of conducted PCR tests since the outbreak of the pandemic. According to the data provided by the Public Health Institute, in a period of almost one week, more than 500.000 COVID-19 tests were performed or by average around 1.400 per day including the tests performed at private laboratories.

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