“Stratfor”: Macedonia’s Tumultuous Year Ahead

The Macedonian government in 2016 will have to deal with a political and ethnically divided country, the refugee crisis and the unresolved name dispute with Greece, predicts the US Agency “Stratfor” which provides geopolitical strategies, adding that the aspirations for EU membership will affect the political situation in the country, although the country will not become a member any time soon.
“Stratfor” says that prolonging of negotiations for EU entry might, over time, reduce support to comply with the EU requirements and cause more political and social instability.
“If Skopje officially abandons the idea of ​​EU membership, Macedonia could lose interest in maintaining good relations with its neighbours. It could open the door for conflict with Albania and Kosovo, because of the situations of ethnic Albanians in Macedonia and Greece, and due to the blockade from Athens for entry into the EU and NATO. Although according to the agency, this scenario is unlikely, however, it can not completely be ruled out taking into account the political division of the EU “, says “Statfor.”
The analysis states that the first half of 2016 will be crucial for the future of Macedonia, besides the political crisis and it will also have to deal with the refugee crisis. After the elections, the new government will have to deal with the growing but fragile economy, with a political and ethnically divided country. The agency estimates that the chances of an ethnic conflict in the country are not high, but does not exclude the possibility of some kind of violence.
The first imperative for Macedonia next year is to create a stable government. The analysis says that the political parties will have to deal with disappointed voters, who, according to the IRI poll, believe the country in recent years has become more unstable and are moving in the wrong direction.