Pending to solve the dilemma and the vacuum of clear answers about what will follow after the fiasco of the negotiations in Brussels for resolving the political crisis in Macedonia, questions to which there are no definitive answers appear in the recent days. One can even say that, instead of some solutions, in recent weeks we get more and more questions without answers.
Will they continue?
Most likely – yes. All sides, Zaev, Gruevski and EU officials say that “the doors are still open.” The stakes are now too high for the process to stop at this stage. Gruevski accepted the resignations of Mijalkov, Janakieski and Jankuloska, agreed to sit at the negotiations in Skopje and Brussels. Zaev put a signature that he won’t publish anymore “bombs,” that he will return to the Assembly and started negotiating. European Union threw the carrot with a possible date for the negotiations in the fall and swung the stick on the possible revocation of the recommendation in the next report, which would take us back in the process of approaching the EU for several years. It is hardly that all of this would be thrown away.
When will they continue?
This week slowly passes, although it is not excluded that, at the end, in the MP’s Club, there will be a new meeting. If it does not happen, then the likely date is early next week. Yesterday, Zaev twice said it would be over the next ten days “or we should not bother anymore.”
Where will they continue?
The initial agreement would be in Skopje, and then, if there is progress and move from the initial red lines, it would continue in Brussels. Neither Hahn nor the EU would now permit a second fiasco and they will sit down at the table with actors from Macedonia only with solid guarantees that there will be some sort of an agreement!
Who will lead them?
Again the same team, Hahn – Vajgl – Kukan – Howitt – LeRoy! The exclusion of any of them would be a recognition that they failed, and that would bring points to nobody.
Who will negotiate?
This is the most uncertain: Gruevski – Zaev – Ahmeti – Thaci.
Is the agreement of 2nd of June still valid?
Apparently, it is valid only on paper. It was not verified in Brussels, Zaev already violated it with the new “bomb” yesterday, and he did not return to the Assembly, and there is less talk for early elections in April 2016.
Is the agreement on early elections in April 2016 still valid?
Same as above. Only on paper. Both sides play hide and seek and calculate the months they need to prepare. However, it seems that Gruevski has entered in the phase of preparing quasi-election activities this week. SDSM, objectively, doesn’t have the energy to do so, therefore, from their point of view, it is understandable that “pull” for a later date and for prompt resignation of Gruevski.
Will Americans be engaged?
In vague announcements that appear from various sources and as vague statements by the US Embassy on the possible involvement of the help of US Secretary of State Victoria Nuland, we can only feel that such an idea floating in the air. At this point, if Nuland assume a mediator role, it will have two effects: the EU will recognize that “it is not good” and that it gives the role to the United States and would mean that the agreement would be “drawn” in Washington, not in Skopje or Brussels. Americans would not afford a figure from the rank of Nuland (who remained remembered for the statement “Who f… EU” during the Ukrainian crisis) to involve without upfront given guarantees that an agreement will be reached and without pre-agreed schedule of events and tools for it to be achieved.
