The National Bank expects less negative effects on the economy caused by COVID-19 during the third quarter


During the regular session of the Committee for operative monetary policy at the National Bank, it was decided that the interest rate of the treasury bill will remain at the level of 1,5%.

“The decrease of the discount interest rate to the current level, including the previous significant decrease of the offered amount of treasury bills, has contributed to an increase of the liquidity of the banking system and support for the loan flows in the economy,” said the National Bank.

The National Bank also said that the latest macroeconomic indicators show a drop in the gross domestic product during the second quarter by 12,7% which is completely in accordance with the projection the National Bank had according to which the expected decrease was 12%.

After the minimal growth during the first quarter by only 0,2% in the second quarter, the economy saw the deepest annual drop due to the effects caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The current available high-frequency data about the third quarter are indicating towards less negative effects caused by the health crisis on the economy. This is evident through the slowing of the drop of the annual rates in the industry and commerce in July while on a monthly basis growth is noticed in both sectors,” said the National Bank.

They also stressed that the average annual rate of inflation will still be kept at a relatively low and stable level and that during the first 8 months it is 0,8%, which is caused by the higher food prices.

“Regarding the projection, these outcomes are above the expectations by a 0 % inflation rate during this year. In such circumstances, even during different levels of revision of imported prices and their changeability especially during conditions of a global pandemic, the uncertainty of the accomplishment of the inflation projections has been increased,” said the National Bank.

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