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Analysis: The presidential race begins – the outcome, uncertain

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At the end of the SDSM Congress on March 3rd, the three candidates for the presidency of the Republic of North Macedonia became clear and were confirmed for the first time in the recent history of the country, as so-called ‘consensus candidates’. Names are known, dates as well, but what is yet unknown, for many reasons, is when the country actually chooses its new president.

At the sixth presidential elections, since independence until today, the public will elect the fifth president from the three candidates and all of them professors: Stevo Pendarovski, nominated by the ruling coalition; Gordana Siljanovska, nominated by VMRO-DPMNE and Blerim Reka, a self-nominated independent candidate. However, Blerim Reka are supported de facto and de jure by the Albanian opposition parliamentary parties, Alliance for Albanians and the Besa Movement.

The candidates are prominent people, well-known in politics and wider society, and there is nothing disputable about them to begin with, in terms of skeletons from the past. The professors were all involved in politics, and Mr. Reka was the ambassador of the former Republic of Macedonia at the EU headquarters in Brussels. However, this is not the reason why these presidential elections make them extremely uncertain.

The problem is in the censuses embedded in the Constitution for the second round, connected with the mobilization power of the political parties, whose reputation with the public, especially among the undecided, but also among some of the supporters, is seriously debatable.

Many serious analysts agree that the census will be a problem. It is not expected to be a problem in the first round, as all major parties currently have motives to mobilize voters to the maximum. The experience with the recent consultative referendum on the Prespa Agreement has shown that if one of the two major parties in the Macedonian bloc boycotts or abstains, the census of 50 percent or more than 902 thousand voters (as was the last one) is an impossible mission. However, this time, the second-round census, which has been reduced to 40 percent of the registered voters, seemingly paradoxical, could be a problem.

Firstly, these elections are not going to be held alongside with parliamentary or local elections, as in the past, where there were more voters at the polling stations. Secondly, depending on the difference between the two best placed candidates in the first round, the more serious public might not exclude the possibility of a silent boycott of one of the parties, in order to cause a rerun of the procedure, this time with extraordinary parliamentary elections. The pressure in this direction might come from supporters of the third-place candidate, in this case, let’s use Reka as an example, if they can gather between 80 and 100 thousand votes, more than half of the Albanian voting tank.

As can be seen, the pre-election period has unofficially lasted for a long time, the race will be officially begin on April 1st and elections will be held on April 21st and May 5th. Whether they will end up with an elected candidate, is not certain at the this point in time.

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